Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.017140 0.019390 0.021825 0.024658 0.027864 0.031379 0.035528
2025-10-12 0.013743 0.016876 0.020556 0.025197 0.030902 0.037690 0.046392
2025-10-19 0.011935 0.015502 0.019929 0.025834 0.033513 0.043179 0.056296
2025-10-26 0.010360 0.014087 0.018928 0.025685 0.034892 0.047025 0.064280
2025-11-02 0.009210 0.013031 0.018193 0.025689 0.036323 0.050908 0.072513
2025-11-09 0.008140 0.011932 0.017239 0.025222 0.036963 0.053653 0.079294
2025-11-16 0.007480 0.011327 0.016885 0.025523 0.038653 0.057942 0.088586
2025-11-23 0.006787 0.010589 0.016249 0.025311 0.039515 0.061026 0.096274
2025-11-30 0.006391 0.010255 0.016171 0.025913 0.041628 0.066118 0.107441
2025-12-07 0.005731 0.009441 0.015269 0.025124 0.041453 0.067588 0.112910
2025-12-14 0.005238 0.008846 0.014657 0.024729 0.041852 0.069962 0.119994
2025-12-21 0.004743 0.008201 0.013902 0.024022 0.041648 0.071293 0.125379
2025-12-28 0.004594 0.008137 0.014120 0.024999 0.044424 0.077911 0.140576
2026-01-04 0.004386 0.007952 0.014115 0.025588 0.046574 0.083629 0.154699
2026-01-11 0.004205 0.007797 0.014145 0.026233 0.048861 0.089748 0.170053
2026-01-18 0.003922 0.007429 0.013761 0.026082 0.049662 0.093222 0.180742
2026-01-25 0.003687 0.007131 0.013477 0.026086 0.050742 0.097274 0.192850
2026-02-01 0.003411 0.006729 0.012966 0.025611 0.050854 0.099485 0.201513
2026-02-08 0.003255 0.006549 0.012863 0.025917 0.052510 0.104790 0.216787
2026-02-15 0.003052 0.006256 0.012514 0.025702 0.053100 0.108023 0.228079
2026-02-22 0.002955 0.006172 0.012571 0.026313 0.055418 0.114899 0.247535
2026-03-01 0.002718 0.005777 0.011971 0.025511 0.054722 0.115526 0.253704
2026-03-08 0.002540 0.005494 0.011577 0.025111 0.054838 0.117841 0.263708